Board and Staff | Capital Investment | Pooling | Market Development | Business Planning | Markets and Marketing | General Market Situation

General Market Situation

Soybeans

There are five tangible options: Forward Contract, Identity Preserved, Soybean Pool, direct purchase, and a storage option (subject to space availability). GEC will quote a forward price for beans. At this time GEC is not in a position to purchase non GMO IP soybeans due to segregation issues. However, assistance with logistics may be an option. Growers should consider the agronomic aspects associated with delivering a quality product. Normally, poor quality attributes; for example, too high in moisture, or low in protein will be rejected or discounted by the buyer.

GEC managers can advise on the quality parameters involved in meeting export standards.

Alternatively, GEC will purchase a quantity of GMO beans out-right for cash to service the local livestock industry as roasted or extruded full fat soybean meal or for local export sales. April 2016 contracts are currently trading in the $400 range per metric tonne range. A fourth option is an IP contract; an example of a closed loop system where the seed source is controlled, there is a management program in place, and export specifications are to be met at the time of delivery. The specialized management program guarantees a higher price if all the specifications are met. Growers are encouraged to discuss this opportunity with those in the IP business.

Lastly, should the grower decide to speculate, thus making a decision on when to market their own beans, the GEC, depending on space available, may condition, store, and market on a fee for service basis. GEC will expect to market around 26,000 metric tonnes of soybeans in 2015-2016.

Milling and Feed Wheat

Recent experience has shown that year over year success in growing a high quality milling wheat crop is a challenge for eastern Canada. There are a number of reasons for this but the major problem to be overcome appears to be weather related. Some agronomists are suggesting that the answer may be found in new winter wheat varieties. It is recommended that growers enroll in crop insurance as an additional measure in managing crop production risk. In 2015/16 GEC expects to market close to 15,100 metric tonne as milling wheat. Sales are expected to resume in January 2016 in the $265-280 per metric tonne dollar range.

Approximately 8,200 metric tonne of feed wheat will be sold from the GEC wheat pool, farm to farm, the feed company, or the fish industry. GEC was major buyer of feed wheat despite being held to a strict quality standard again this year. To date, sales of new crop feed wheat have been brisk. The Winter 2016 selling price for feed wheat is $250-260 range FOB our plant. The fish market and livestock feed sectors are competing for local supplies. The amount of low quality wheat available for sale this year is minimal due to much improved weather conditions.

Barley/Oats

For both the buyer and seller, the manner in which barley or oats tracks corn is in part a function of the Chicago futures, and the local basis. GEC will offer the market around 17,000 metric tonne of barley in 2015/16. This past year the local livestock feed market stabilized somewhat from the previous year due to rising commodity prices. These factors coupled with lower international/domestic corn prices and adequate supplies of eastern and western feed grains have softened the initial barley prices.The Winter 2016 current barley selling price is expected to be $190-205. Local oat production increased this year.  GEC will handle 2,000 mt or so this year. Oat buyers are prepared to substitute oats in rations wherever they can.  Oats are currently selling in the $165 per mt range.

One cautionary note for growers is that the buyer is much more aware of the quality of cereal than in the past. Two important indicators of quality include bushel weight and fiber levels.  Another is related to resistance to fusarium.  Growers are encouraged to select two row or high quality six row varieties when making their varietal selections that consider all important quality parameters.  Product with greater than 3 ppm DON may either be rejected or discounted at time of delivery.

Corn

Non-ensilage corn is generally available as high moisture or dry corn. GEC bought 2-3,000 mt of wet corn this year. The understanding is that large local quantities of low quality may also be available in the $170 range. The import price of higher quality corn is $255.00 per mt. Wet harvest conditions again this year made both harvesting and drying of corn difficult.

Drying corn is an expensive proposition if the variety matures late in the year, exacerbated by cold weather conditions. GEC equipment is simply not designed to handle it. Island Corn at the time of writing is currently trading in the $250 per metric tonne range f.o.b. GEC elevator provided it is graded as a Canada #2 grade.

The production per acre is higher when above average yields are reported. However, when fertilizer and drying costs are factored in, it may be an expensive crop to grow. The key is to have a secure market and forward plan for marketing. High moisture may well be the cheapest way to harvest and store, providing the toxin levels are low and there is access to oxygen limiting storage.

New Crops

The P.E.I. Grain Elevators Corporation continues to pursue an agenda which includes the ability to help growers develop wider diversity in available crops.  Diversity involves having access to a large number of crop choices to ensure soil health through the utilization of effective crop rotations.  Exploiting new markets for oilseeds and products may require additional investments in specific types of processing, drying and handling infrastructure as commercial production targets are achieved. Agronomic challenges remain in terms of harvesting and handling of these crops. Nevertheless, with establishment of new crushing and refining capacity both within the province and the region, there are opportunities available to farmers who can achieve acceptable yield and quality standards.  GEC will support these efforts through agronomic and crop work carried out by the federal research scientists at Agriculture & Agri-Food Canada research facilities in Harrington and elsewhere nationally.

PEI Grain Elevators Corporation supports research and development of crops through levy collection and its on-going support of local Grains Councils and related industry projects. Additionally the GEC has embarked on an initial investigation of post farm gate food safety programming.

Outlook

PEI prices tend to follow the futures prices. Futures markets in Chicago and Minneapolis are the ones to watch.  PEI is not immune to the market forces that operate locally and internationally. Hence any attempt to forecast must be taken as an estimate at best. GEC does complete an annual analysis of the futures markets (Chicago & Minneapolis) when developing hedging plans for next year's crops of oats, soybeans, corn, barley and wheat. The following information is provided as a guide, this forecast should not be taken to be a predictor as to what may actually transpire in any market now or into the future. Prices are affected by events that occur on a daily or even hourly basis both locally and around the globe.

 

 

Commodity

 

Market Direction

 

Forecast PEI Price and date

 

Corn

 

Price stable in early 2016

 

$250-255 per metric tonne projected into 2016- $175 grade #5

 

Barley

 

Prices weakening for early 2016 15% quality adjustment local supply/demand a factor

 

$200 per metric tonne spring 2016

 

 

Oats

 

Prices leveling off in January 2016 and then expected to decline 25% quality adjustment for feed; local supply/demand adjustment

 

$160 plus per mt spring 2016

 

Milling Wheat

 

downward to carrying market Spread between corn and milling wheat narrowing

 

$265-280 per metric tonne new crop price spring 2016

 

Feed Wheat

 

wheat follows corn

 

 $245-265 per metric tonne spring 2016

 

Soybeans (raw)

 

GMO soybean prices trending sideways and then upward

 

 

$380-410 2016 new crop forward contract basis

Grain Elevators

  • Kensington
    902-836-8927
    Wade Waddell
    Plant Supervisor

     

  • Roseneath
    902-838-0891
    Joseph  Vandenberghe
    Plant Supervisor

  • Elmsdale
    902-853-8630
    Donald Stewart
    Plant Supervisor

  • Head Office
    902-836-8935

    Neil Campbell
    General Manager

    Michael Delaney
    Director Strategic Planning

    Joann Lowther  Financial Manager

    Barbara Walker Accounting Tech

    Derrith MacDougall Admin Support Worker